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ARTICLE: STUMBLING BLOCKS AND POWER BLOCS CALL FOR COOL HEADS

2019-06-11

TE HEADSHOT opt

One can almost feel the despair of the South African population. Among the reasons for this are an unprecedented increase in the spate of farm attacks and murders, Ace Magashule and Co. meddling with the Reserve Bank and trouble with infrastructure and dysfunctional municipalities in almost every town. And then having the Proteas messing about at the World Cup is no help either! Many South Africans are asking, “What is Cyril doing about this? He is the President now!”

And that’s partly true – our President is in a better place than a year ago as far as party politics are concerned. He followed up his victory at Nasrec (53%)  with a 57.5% victory at the polls in May. He is no longer an “interim” President, but one that has led his party to a victory (and probably single-handedly rescued them from a defeat). He reduced the Cabinet and got all rid of all the biggest Zupta crooks. He promised (almost like Madiba of old) to be a President for all the people of South Africa and not just for the ANC. But, unfortunately, it doesn’t mean he is untouchable and can do what he wants. There are a few stumbling blocks on his path. And to understand what’s happening now, one needs to know what these stumbling blocks are.

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ARTICLE: THE NEW CABINET: ABLE TO DELIVER OR THE SAME OLD SAME OLD?

2019-06-05

parliament interior sabc

The excitement and disappointment (in some quarters) regarding the appointment of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Cabinet has settled. A number of articles have already been written about the Cabinet and its strong points, weak points, old members, and new recruits.  The question remains: can the new Cabinet deliver on the President’s promises?

It is essential to remember that the most fundamental change to the new Cabinet is the chairman. How President Ramaphosa will lead- and what he prioritises- will distinguish his Cabinet from that of its predecessor. In addition, what is new is the support he will have. It is now generally understood that the choice of Ministers and deputies was a product of intense behind-the-scenes negotiations with various stakeholders. In the end, of the 28 Ministers, only five are known Zuma supporters (including Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who in the recent past has actually become supportive of the Ramaphosa cause). This implies that Ramaphosa has more than 80% of his Cabinet not in opposition to him or his plans. Even though the number of Deputy Ministers was inflated beyond initial plans, it is clear that at most, 12 of the 34 deputies were products of compromise with the Zuptoid faction. This gives Ramaphosa 75% support in the entire group and even more in the actual Cabinet of 28. That is a strong start, especially when one considers the potency of various factions and stakeholders in the ANC alliance.  It is believed that the President (as many before him) will have a smaller, trusted circle, a kitchen Cabinet – and this is where he will start. 

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ARTICLE: THE SEMINAL CHALLENGES CONFRONTING PRESIDENT RAMAPHOSA

2019-05-24

FWDK Matthew Willman SML

Cyril Ramaphosa’s election as President of the ANC at NASREC in December 2017 was the second great turning point in the history of the new South Africa.  The first had come at the ANC’s elective conference at Polokwane in 2007, when Jacob Zuma had defeated an astonished Thabo Mbeki in the election for the ANC’s presidency.

Zuma’s victory had its roots in a decision that was taken at COSATU’s 9th Congress in 2006 when the organisation decided to launch a battle for the ‘heart and soul’ of the ANC.  It resolved, among other things, that “the working class must re-direct the NDR towards socialism and jealously guard it against opportunistic tendencies that are attempting to wrest it from achieving its logical conclusion, which is socialism”.

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ARTICLE: IS CYRIL WINNING? FACTORS IN THE COMPOSITION OF THE NEW CABINET

2019-05-20

parliament interior sabc

On 22 May, Cyril Ramaphosa will be elected by the National Assembly as President of democratic South Africa, with his inauguration on May 25. According to available information, the Cabinet will be announced on 27 May.

It is therefore too early to speculate on exactly who will be included in the Cabinet and who not. The lists currently doing the rounds have probably been released by various factions to determine which way the wind is blowing – and perhaps influence the wind’s direction.

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ARTICLE: WHAT TO DO IN THE LAST DAYS BEFORE THE SIXTH DEMOCRATIC ELECTION?

2019-05-06

sa election foter

It is generally accepted that, after a period of intense political and social turmoil, South Africans are generally somewhat despondent, negative and bewildered. It is not necessary to further expand upon this – the daily dose of the latest state-capture scandal, road and flood deaths are well-known.

However, a general election doesn’t come every year. And with just two days before the election, the question is: what does one do from now until Wednesday and how does one approach the polling station on May 8, 2019? The correct answer is not, “nothing special”. Or, “I’m not going to vote”, or “I don’t know who to vote for”.

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ARTICLE: MOVING THE NEEDLE – THE YOUTH VOTE IN SOUTH AFRICA

2019-04-18

As Election 2019 kicks into full swing, the numbers, names and details have become available, much of it online. A healthy 48 political parties will be contesting the national elections, with 26.74 million – or 74.4% – of the voting population having registered to vote. Of this number, 55% are women. A significant number of registered voters, almost 25%, are in the 30 to 39 years age group.

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ARTICLE: THE ANC’S PARTY LIST AND SCENARIOS FOR MAY 2019 AND 2025

2019-03-22

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The ANC recently published the list of its members who will go to Parliament following the May election. These people will form the ANC Caucus in Parliament; they must support President Ramaphosa in his plans to set the government and the economy on a firm footing. If one takes a closer look, and applies one’s mind, the compilation of this list is almost more important than the voting percentage of between 55% and 60% that the ANC is likely to get in the general election. The compilation of this list is the most recent barometer of how matters stand in the battle between the constitutionalists on the Ramaphosa side, and the kleptocrats on the Zupta side.

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ARTICLE: POLITICAL FINANCE – WHAT MATTERS

2017-11-17

parliament sml

The Ad Hoc Committee on the Funding of Political Parties recently held public hearings on the Draft Political Party Funding Bill of 2017 (Draft Bill). The Draft Bill seeks to regulate the public and private funding of political parties. The underlying premise of the Draft Bill is that the contestation of electoral politics should be fought on an equal and fair basis, with the citizen as core consideration.

The reality however, is not the case as the increasing influence of money in politics appears to dominate electoral discourse, as opposed to an interrogation of positions, policies and principles.

South Africa is no stranger to the transactional nature of politics and in recent times #GuptaLeaks has exposed the invidious underbelly of politics in the country. This series of leaks has hastened the calls for greater commitment to transparency and accountability and for disclosure to become norm in political life and practice.

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