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ARTICLE: THE SACP AND R2 BILLION ADD VARIETY TO POST-DECEMBER SCENARIOS

2017-07-26

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There are basically three post-December 2017 scenarios.

The first is a Dlamini-Zuma victory (“NDZ”), after which the ANC will probably split – and struggle to secure 50% at the polls in 2019. Following which, corruption will persist and economic growth will remain low.

The second is a Ramaphosa victory (“CR17”), after which the ANC could split, but probably not – and where getting 50% at the ballot box could be a little easier. Further, corruption will be tackled and the economy will slowly improve.

The third is the “unity scenario”, whereby there will be either a loser Deputy President and the ANC will paper over the cracks (and struggle at the ballot box), or a compromise candidate may be elected as President, with new possibilities for anti-corruption initiatives, as well as the economy.

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ARTICLE: IS THE CONSTITUTION IN JEOPARDY AFTER THE ANC’S 5TH POLICY CONFERENCE?*

2017-07-14

DAILY MAVERICK NDZ CR optThe chairs and tables have been packed away, the delegates are home and the myriad of reports of the ANC’s 5th Policy Conference are at Luthuli House for editing, publication and, in due course, for sending to regions and branches countrywide for discussion. The final policy decisions will be made in December, at the Elective Conference.

It is important to consider whether, from the verbal feedback and media reports, the Constitution is in jeopardy after the Policy Conference. What must be taken into account is that this Policy Conference was less about policy and more about the fierce leadership struggle between the delegates backing Mrs Zuma (“NDZ”) and Cyril Ramaphosa (“CR17”).

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ARTICLE: MAJORITY OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN BREACH OF THE CONSTITUTION

2017-06-29

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Section 152 of the Constitution describes the objectives of local government as providing democratic and accountable government, ensuring the provision of services, promoting social and economic development, and promoting a safe and healthy environment. Section 195 offers a set of basic values and principles governing public administration, amongst these a high standard of professional ethics, the effective use of resources, and accountability.

The most recently-released Report by the Auditor-General (AG) on the local government sector paints a bleak, and in many instances, deteriorating picture of the state of financial management and oversight, one that is wholly inconsistent with the laudable and enforceable principles of the Constitution. This comes after 23 years of democratic government and repeated appeals by the AG to local politicians and officials to get their house in order. Local government is the lens through which ordinary South Africans experience constitutional guarantees – and failure of local government erodes public trust in the constitutional state.

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ARTICLE: PUNCH-DRUNK AND STAGGERING, BUT ON COURSE …

2017-06-09

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One cannot blame South Africans for feeling a little punch-drunk and perhaps even despondent. It seems like there is no more good news in the media. The prospects for the country and the rand do not look good and reportedly, the emigration agents are making good money with South Africans seeking greener pastures (not that Britain looks so green following the terror attacks in public places – it’s a lot safer even on Johannesburg’s streets).

There are two broad reactions to this state of affairs – some (like former president of the Free State, Jan Brand) say “everything will be alright”. “Zuma is on his way out one of these days and then everything will be set to rights again.” Others (like those who choose to emigrate) say with conviction “all is lost – the country will never recover from the damage inflicted by Zuma”. However, neither of these two reactions is 100% correct. As with many other things, the truth lies somewhere in between.

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