Issued by Ezra Mendel on behalf of the FW de Klerk Foundation on 12/08/2024

This is the third article in the series that focuses on the impact of Western elections on South Africa. The first article looked at the American elections and the second looked at the French elections. This article seeks to analyse (with statistics) the impact of European elections on South Africa.

Various data collection centres conducted the statistical findings referenced in this article. These findings are used to understand and explain the impacts of geopolitics on South Africa.

SA Public Opinion on the European Union:

South Africa is no stranger to past challenges and economic battles, with it being a rising semi-peripheral state, the European Union (“EU”), as well as some non-EU states such as Britain, play a considerable role in South Africa’s economy as partners in trade. A 2023 Pew Research Centre study revealed that “People broadly view the EU favourably, both in member states and elsewhere” with 43% of South Africans showing favourability towards the EU, compared to only 35% being unfavourable towards it. Despite this, South Africa placed last among the African countries analysed in terms of favourability towards the EU– in Nigeria, 68% of people are in favour of the EU and Kenya 70% of people are in favour of the EU. From the 25 countries analysed globally, South Africa again was the least favourable towards the EU.

The 2024 Elections:

With South Africa and countries across Europe having elections this year (2024), there is a strong chance of significant governmental change. Both South Africa and the EU parliament recently concluded their elections. However, many European states will soon go to the polls. While these states do value democracy and human rights, their approaches and political systems differ significantly. South Africa’s proportional representation system allows for diverse representation of political views. Arguably, this resulted in the establishment of a Government of National Unity (GNU). In the European elections, a notable rise in support for the right-wing has been seen: The far right gained prominence in France, the Netherlands and the rest of Europe. However, Britain swung in the opposite direction with the Labour Party achieving a landmark victory over the conservative party. This moderate-left-wing victory in Europe may be necessary to counter the growing far-right enthusiasm in Europe.

These differences highlight each country’s distinct challenges and opportunities in promoting democratic values. South Africa’s Constitution, with its robust commitment to human rights and democracy, provides a strong foundation for the Republic’s international stance. With the rise of the far-right in Europe and the era of coalitions in South Africa, each state faces a critical juncture in maintaining its international commitments and furthering democracy and human rights.

Diplomacy – A Critical Juncture:

Regarding the election results received across Europe, it is important to have an idea of what diplomacy may look like. Diplomatically, the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict have caused a lot of tension and polarisation in international relations. Interestingly, with the post-election rise of the far-right within the EU, there seems to be a growing scepticism around sanctions on Russia and support for Ukraine, a view shared by member states such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Slovakia’s Roberto Fico and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders. Even in states where the far-right populists are not leading, public opinion supporting the far-right may lead governments across Europe to be less ambitious in their support of Ukraine.

Britain’s new government under the Labour Party is more likely to be firm in its support for Ukraine, however, there may be a revision to their stance on the Israel–Hamas conflict. Notable in this round of elections, Labour MPs expressed their support for the Palestinian cause. Diplomatically, the newly elected Labour-led government in Britain seems to share similar sentiments to South Africa. However, in general, unlike US-SA relations, SA-European relations have not seen a major strain stemming from geopolitical issues. A simple yet powerful indication of the growing political and diplomatic relations between South Africa and Europe is that it has become common to see European Heads of State on working visits to SA. This shows both past and current European administrations’ keen interest in supporting mutual developments, especially regarding the promotion of democracy and human rights.

Environmental Politics:

The European Union contributes a significant amount to South Africa’s climate initiatives. As of 2023, the EU was set to invest more than €280 million in South African grants, including €87,75 million from the EU budget. Additionally, Germany, France and the EU, as per the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), will provide more than $3 billion in financing to South Africa. All in the hopes of helping South Africa achieve a low-carbon economy and a climate-resilient society. With the recent European Parliament elections having taken place, it is noticeable that right-wing populists, opposed to climate action, are gaining popularity and may pose a threat in influencing climate narratives to their advantage. Europe itself has fallen victim to unaffordable energy bills. Thus, there has been a shift from Europe’s far-right parties to contest Europe’s Energy Bill. With the rise of the far-right, we may see the erosion of the EU’s capabilities in leading global climate initiatives. Britain, on the other hand, is taking a different approach: The Labour government’s manifesto prioritises making Britain a clean energy superpower. This will see them supporting other countries with a similar vision, making it a strategic partner for South Africa and the energy goals it is committed to.

The Future of SA-Europe Relations:

With each state entering new political dispensations, the future of South Africa’s relations with Europe is projected to remain cordial from now into the near future. The betterment of humanity and the promotion of democracy can be enhanced only through international cooperation and the building, instead of severing, of relations. The EU still looks set in its support for South Africa. Additionally, as the new British government takes shape, South Africa finds itself faced with an excellent opportunity to make strides in strengthening bilateral relations with Britain. Especially with the rise of the far-right, there may be ideological differences that spark between the new British government and the GNU, however, there needs to be consensus building. The importance of staying in the conversation to navigate this unusual time we live in globally cannot be overstated.

Conclusion:

As South Africa navigates global geopolitical shifts amid the 2024 European elections, maintaining a strong constitutional order is paramount. South Africa’s constitutional commitment to democracy and human rights, reflected in its Bill of Rights, remains foundational. Despite global uncertainties and ideological challenges, the country’s proportional representation system supports diverse political representation and democratic resilience. The GNU presents an opportunity to recalibrate foreign policy pragmatically, safeguarding national interests while engaging with a range of diverse global partners.