Issued by Ezra Mendel on behalf of the FW de Klerk Foundation on 22/07/2024

Introduction:

This article in the election series seeks to analyse (with statistics) the impact of the United States of America’s (“US”) election on South Africa, especially given the rise of global geopolitical tensions. By analysing this we can identify external opportunities or threats posed to South Africa and subsequently how they may impact the mandate of the South African Constitution.

Various data collection centres conducted the statistical findings referenced in this article. These findings are used to understand and explain the impacts of geopolitics on South Africa.

South African Public Opinion on the US:

Public opinion plays a crucial role in shaping foreign policies and leaders’ responses in democracies, such as South Africa and the US. Despite South Africa’s distant geographical location, in the southernmost part of Africa, its public remains deeply connected and attuned to global affairs. A recent 2024 Pew Research Centre study on “International Views of the US” reveals a generally favourable sentiment towards the US among South Africans.

However, this favourability is declining with only 49% of South Africans viewing the US favourably, a significant drop from 59% in 2023. Interestingly, South Africans show greater favourability towards the US in comparison to countries like Australia (40%), the Netherlands (48%), Spain (48%) and France (46%). Despite this comparative favourability, South Africans express very little confidence in Trump (31%) and Biden (36%), the only candidates running in the 2024 US elections. This is a stark contrast to the 77% confidence in Obama during the later years of his administration.

Why has South African confidence in US leadership plummeted and what does this mean for the future of SA-US relations? The answers to these questions could have significant implications for the bilateral relationship between the two nations and for South Africa’s stance in global geopolitics.

Ideological Allies:

South Africa and the US are committed to championing human rights and promoting democracy. Historically, the US has supported South Africa’s efforts to protect human rights and democracy, viewing it as a model African democracy.

However, the global political landscape is shifting, with far-right movements gaining prominence worldwide. The rise of far-right ideologies, known for opposing multilateralism and the promotion of human rights, threatens the platforms South Africa uses to engage with its Western counterparts. A 2024 study reveals that only 26% of the American public believes that the US should promote and defend human rights abroad, down from 34% last year. Similar trends are evident in Europe, reflecting a growing reluctance to engage in international human rights advocacy. These trends could alter government administrations in various nations, raising questions about the future extent of promoting democracy and human rights. This may undermine the advancement of human rights and democracy in South Africa.

Despite historical support from the US, the changing political climate poses a risk to this alliance. South Africa must navigate these ideological shifts while maintaining its constitutional principles and international standing. The US Constitution, while not explicitly mentioning the promotion of human rights abroad, has been interpreted to support international human rights through its principles of liberty and justice. The Preamble emphasises establishing justice and securing the blessings of liberty, which have guided US foreign policy in promoting democracy and human rights globally.

2024 Elections:

Both countries have elections this year (2024), which could lead to significant changes in their respective governments. South Africa recently concluded its elections, while the US election date is set for 5 November 2024.

While both nations value democracy and human rights, their approaches and political systems differ significantly. South Africa’s proportional representation system contrasts with the US’s mixed electoral system, leading to different political dynamics and governance structures. The proportional representation system in South Africa allows for a more diverse representation of political parties, reflecting a broader spectrum of public opinion. In South Africa, voters choose their representatives in Parliament. Parliament then elects the President. In contrast, the US uses a mixed system of direct election for representatives and an electoral college for Presidential elections. This system often results in a binary political landscape, dominated by two major parties.

These differences highlight the distinct challenges and opportunities each country faces in promoting democratic values. South Africa’s Constitution, with its robust commitment to human rights and democracy, provides a strong foundation for its international stance. The US, with its historical role as a promoter of democracy, faces a critical juncture in maintaining its international commitments amidst rising isolationist sentiments.

Bilateral Economic Relations:

South Africa is the largest US trade partner in Africa and is home to around 600 American businesses, most of whose current operations in South Africa serve as regional headquarters. Such a diverse business climate requires both governments to frequently engage in discussions to increase bilateral trade and investment opportunities.

Since the early 2000s, South Africa has qualified for preferential trade with the US due to the establishment of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (“AGOA”) in the 2000s, the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (“TIFA”) in 2012, as well as the Trade, Investment and Development Cooperative Agreement (“TIDCA”) which South Africa benefits from due to its membership in the Southern African Customs Union. On top of this, the US and South Africa have a bilateral tax treaty that prevents double taxation and fiscal evasion.

AGOA has recently come into the spotlight because of diplomatic disagreements between South Africa and the US due to the countries’ different stances on geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas conflict. When AGOA first took effect in 2000, South Africa’s economy benefited significantly. For example, South Africa increased its automotive exports to the US from $195 million in 2000 to $1,8 billion in 2013. By 2013, South Africa exported $8,9 billion of automobiles and sent 19,9% to the US. As South Africa’s economy grew it diversified, which has seen South Africa exporting to other regions, like the European Union (discussed in the sequel to this article).

Although South Africa’s membership within AGOA has been renewed, a Republican administration at the helm may seek a revision of this. The loss of AGOA will negatively impact both South Africa and the US, which relies on South Africa for a range of critical minerals (the US imports nearly 100% of its chromium from South Africa as of 2021, as well as over 20% in other minerals). Leveraging AGOA as a form of economic diplomacy is key for encouraging the security of critical mineral supplies for the US.

“A Diplomacy of Convenience?”

The 2024 elections herald a new era in South African politics, prompting speculation about the Government of National Unity’s (“GNU”) approach to foreign relations, potentially leaning towards a quieter diplomatic stance. This analysis must consider the evolving foreign policy priorities of the US.

According to a Pew Research Centre study on “Americans’ Top Foreign Policy Priorities“, the foremost concerns include protecting the US against terrorist threats (73%), curbing drug trafficking (64%) and preventing the spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction (63%). Over half of Americans also prioritise limiting the influence of Russia (50%) and China (49%), marking a significant shift in US foreign policy priorities.

Recent years have strained US-South Africa relations amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. Allegations by the US Ambassador to South Africa regarding South Africa’s role in supplying arms to Russia during the Ukraine conflict have intensified scrutiny. Additionally, bipartisan efforts in the US Congress have called for a reassessment of bilateral ties, accusing South Africa of aligning with “malign actors”.

The prospect of a Republican administration, influenced by Trump’s policies, suggests a potential divergence in the US’s approaches. Republicans, including supporters of Trump, may seek closer ties with Putin’s Russia and advocate for the halting of aid to Ukraine, contrasting with Democratic policies under Biden. Such shifts could impact South Africa’s diplomatic balancing act and its relations with major powers.

The trajectory of US-South Africa relations is also influenced by their respective stances on international conflicts, notably the Israel-Hamas issue. While US Republicans traditionally support Israel, South Africa’s solidarity with the Palestinian cause, often criticised as supporting Hamas, poses diplomatic challenges. A shift towards right-wing global leadership could further strain South Africa’s relations with Western partners, affecting economic agreements and partnerships.

Observers anticipate a more cautious international approach from Pretoria. As the GNU is characterised by a coalition of parties less involved in historical conflicts than the ANC-led government.

Environmental Politics:

South Africa has been a significant recipient of climate funding from the US, but recent surveys indicate that this support is now at risk as climate change action has seen dwindling support among Americans, dropping from 46% in 2018 to 44% in recent surveys. Concerns escalate with the potential for a Republican administration, where only 15% of Republicans prioritise climate change as a top foreign policy issue, contrasting sharply with 70% of Democrats who prioritise it. Notably, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement – an international treaty aiming to limit global warming levels – a move reversed by Biden on his first day in office, highlighting divergent climate policies between the two administrations.

The election of a Republican administration could significantly curtail global climate initiatives and responsibilities. This shift poses a direct threat to South Africa’s ability to uphold section 24 of its Constitution, which guarantees the right to a clean and healthy environment. Withdrawal or reduction in US climate funding and policy support would undermine efforts to combat climate change and protect environmental rights in South Africa.

The Future of US-SA relations:

If Trump wins the 2024 US elections, South Africa may face significant shifts in bilateral relations. Historically, Trump’s administration has favoured transactional diplomacy and prioritised economic interests over human rights and democracy promotion. This approach could strain South Africa’s diplomatic ties, especially if Trump continues his scepticism towards multilateral agreements and institutions. The potential revision or withdrawal from initiatives like AGOA could disrupt South Africa’s economy, impacting sectors heavily reliant on US trade and investment. Furthermore, Trump’s stance on climate change could reduce US support for global environmental initiatives, affecting South Africa’s efforts to address climate challenges and protect its environmental rights enshrined in its Constitution.

Conversely, if Biden wins, South Africa might experience a more predictable and cooperative approach from US relations. Biden’s administration has shown a commitment to multilateralism, human rights and climate action, which aligns closely with South Africa’s values and international priorities. This could lead to strengthened partnerships, particularly in areas of mutual interest like democracy promotion, environmental protection and economic cooperation under initiatives like AGOA. Biden’s emphasis on rebuilding alliances and engaging with international organisations could provide South Africa with greater diplomatic support and economic opportunities, enhancing stability and alignment with global norms.

Conclusion:

As South Africa navigates global geopolitical shifts amid the 2024 US elections, maintaining a strong constitutional order is paramount. South Africa’s constitutional commitment to democracy and human rights, reflected in its Bill of Rights, remains foundational. Despite global uncertainties and ideological challenges, the country’s proportional representation system supports diverse political representation and democratic resilience. The GNU presents an opportunity to recalibrate foreign policy pragmatically, safeguarding national interests while engaging with global partners.