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THE IMPACT OF THE FRENCH ELECTIONS ON SOUTH AFRICA (PART 2)

Issued by Ezra Mendel and Ismail Joosub on behalf of the FW de Klerk Foundation on 23/07/2024

 

This analysis delves into the profound implications of France’s recent parliamentary elections on South Africa. As France undergoes a seismic political shift, with the rise of the left-wing New Popular Front (“NFP”) coalition and the continued influence of the far-right National Rally (“RN”), this article explores how these developments may reshape diplomatic, economic and ideological ties between the two nations. From assessing the stability of economic partnerships and the promotion of democratic values to navigating potential shifts in international relations and human rights advocacy, this analysis aims to illuminate the impact of the French elections on South Africa’s constitutional commitments. Amidst evolving dynamics in French politics, this article also seeks to underscore the imperative for South Africa to navigate these changes while upholding its core principles of democracy and international cooperation, as apart of the Foundation’s election series.

 

Why South Africa Needs France:

Diplomatic and International Relations: South Africa benefits significantly from France’s support in global forums like the United Nations, where both nations collaborate on issues of human rights, peacekeeping and sustainable development. France’s diplomatic weight amplifies South Africa’s voice on global stages, reinforcing mutual interests in promoting democratic governance and international cooperation.

Economic Partnership: France is regularly South Africa’s second-largest trading partner within the European Union, with extensive economic ties that include investments spanning various sectors, such as energy, automotive and telecommunications. In addition, French companies contribute significantly to South Africa’s economy, employing thousands and bolstering local industries through technological transfer and innovation.

Cultural and Educational Exchange: Cultural diplomacy between South Africa and France enhances mutual understanding and promotes artistic and academic collaboration. For example, programmes like language exchanges and academic partnerships strengthen people-to-people ties and foster cultural diversity.

 

Why France Needs South Africa:

Strategic Access to Africa: South Africa serves as a crucial gateway for French businesses seeking to expand into the African continent. Its strategic location, stable economy and robust infrastructure make it an ideal hub for French companies to access regional markets and leverage trade opportunities across Africa.

Security and Stability: France values South Africa’s role in regional security and stability, particularly in addressing complex issues such as conflict resolution, peacekeeping missions and counterterrorism efforts in Africa. Collaborative efforts bolster security cooperation and contribute to maintaining peace in volatile regions.

Multilateral Diplomacy: As a prominent member of the African Union and other regional bodies, South Africa’s diplomatic influence complements France’s global strategy. Both countries collaborate on international initiatives, including climate change mitigation, sustainable development goals and human rights advocacy, enhancing their collective impact on global affairs.

 

The 2024 French Parliamentary Elections: What Happened and How does it Affect South Africa?

In the 2024 French legislative elections, the left-wing New Popular Front NPF emerged victorious by securing the most parliamentary seats, despite not achieving an outright majority. This coalition, composed of the Socialists, Communists and Greens, strategically aligned to counter the surging far-right RN led by Marine Le Pen, which claimed a significant number of seats but fell short of expectations.

Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party, while placing second, also played a pivotal role in the electoral landscape. Macron’s political strategy and leadership were scrutinised amid challenges from both the left and right factions. The election’s outcome, with no clear majority, leaves France in a precarious political situation, requiring negotiations to form a functioning government.

For South Africa, a centrist government in France would offer several advantages. Economically, stable relations under a centrist leadership would likely support ongoing trade and investment partnerships, benefiting South Africa as France’s largest trading partner in Africa. Politically, a centrist French administration aligns well with South Africa’s diplomatic priorities, promoting international cooperation, human rights and climate action – areas where both nations share common ground. Moreover, a centrist stance in France could mitigate right-wing policies that might impact global governance frameworks and exacerbate geopolitical tensions, providing a more predictable and constructive partner for South Africa on the global stage.

 

Political Relations: What do France and South Africa have in Common?

South Africa and France share constitutional commitments rooted in addressing historical injustices and promoting inclusive societies. In South Africa, the Constitution emphasises rectifying past racial discrimination through laws that uphold human dignity, equality and non-racialism (South African Constitution, section 1(a-b)). Similarly, France’s Constitution underscores the values of liberty, equality and fraternity, aiming to overcome historical inequalities and ensure social cohesion (Preamble of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic of France).

Both nations face challenges stemming from historical injustices – South Africa from apartheid’s legacy and France from its past of leading colonialism and recent societal divisions. Their Constitutions serve as frameworks for promoting reconciliation, protecting minority rights and fostering inclusive national identities. Through constitutional mechanisms, such as independent judiciaries and rights-based approaches, South Africa and France are now both striving to build cohesive societies that respect human rights and uphold democratic principles on a global scale.

South Africa’s political relations with France, akin to its ties with the United States and Britain, prioritise advancing democracy and human rights. President Macron’s recent visit to South Africa in 2021, at President Ramaphosa’s invitation, underscores the warmth between the two democracies, a gesture not seen from US or UK leaders in five years. Macron, though critiqued domestically for leaning right, globally champions democracy and human rights. The bilateral Innovation for Democracy Foundation (“FIDEMO”) in Johannesburg exemplifies their joint efforts in revitalising democratic principles. Yet, France faces challenges from a rising far-right, testing its commitment to freedom and equality, values core to South Africa’s Constitution – human dignity, equality and non-racialism (section 1(a-b)). Aligning these commitments is vital for restoring faith in democratic institutions across Africa.

 

Economic Relations

One cannot underestimate the economic relations between the two states. South Africa is France’s largest trading partner in Africa, while France is South Africa’s second-largest trading partner in the European Union trading bloc. To date, there are nearly 400 French Companies present in South Africa, which has seen trade between South Africa and France grow by 20%, with French companies employing around 65 000 South Africans. Again, the far-right rise paints a gloomy picture of economic relations between France and South Africa, if the far-right wing under parties like the RN would take the helm of French politics. We know that such parties in Europe alone seek to favour French Companies in procurement contracts and seek to re-establish internal borders which may increase tensions between France and EU institutions. Although it’s too early to fully comment on how the power of the far-right in France would impact South Africa, it would be unlikely that economic relations between the two states would be destroyed. 

 

Growing Diplomat Relations

France is navigating significant socio political and economic challenges internally, impacting its global diplomatic engagements. In Africa, there’s a noticeable trend of resistance towards France’s longstanding influence, notably from leaders involved in recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, who portray France unfavourably. Consequently, France is reassessing its enduring footprint and influence in the region, although some Francophone African nations continue to seek cooperative relationships with France.

South Africa remains a key partner for France, particularly in maintaining its strategic presence on the continent amidst these evolving dynamics. The 7th administration of South Africa holds a unique position to assert itself regionally, but also globally, despite potential geopolitical tensions that have historically impacted South Africa’s relations with major powers like the United States.

France’s foreign policy stance on the Ukraine conflict has evolved significantly. Initially advocating for diplomatic solutions to avoid escalating tensions with Russia and ensure European security, President Macron has recently shown inclinations towards supporting Western military interventions. This shift contrasts with South Africa’s traditional policy of non-alignment and emphasis on peaceful conflict resolution and human rights.

The rise of far-right political movements in France, such as the RN which advocates positions potentially aligned with Russia, poses challenges to France’s historical commitment to democratic values both within Europe and globally. Additionally, amidst Western efforts to resolve the Israel-Hamas conflict, France’s readiness to recognise Palestine’s statehood and its supportive stance on South Africa’s genocide case at the ICJ highlight potential avenues for diplomatic collaboration with South Africa on international human rights issues.

 

Conclusion

As South Africa assesses the implications of France’s recent elections, maintaining a robust constitutional order remains paramount. South Africa’s commitment to democracy and human rights, enshrined in its Bill of Rights, must guide its engagements with France amidst evolving political dynamics. Whether navigating a left-wing or far-right dominated French political landscape, the 7th administration of South Africa – a Government of National Unity –  presents an opportunity to recalibrate foreign policy pragmatically. By upholding its core principles and engaging strategically with global partners, South Africa can safeguard its national interests while contributing to international efforts for peace, human rights and sustainable development.