Predicting the future Archives - Page 15 of 17

ARTICLE: THE ANC’S DISASTROUS NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE PROPOSAL

2019-08-23

There is nothing wrong with first world national health schemes if you are a first world country. Unfortunately, South Africa is not a first world country and simply does not have the resources or manpower to achieve the ambitious objectives of the ANC’s proposed National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme.

As it stands, the NHI has the potential to cause more havoc than even the dire prospect of expropriation without compensation. If it is implemented as envisaged it will have a direct impact on the lived experience of South Africa’s multi-racial middle class, millions of South Africans who already bear a heavy tax burden. If parents with sick children have to wait for weeks for medical appointments – and for yet more weeks to see specialists – their frustration and anger will dominate their lives. And to make things worse, the NHI will not make any difference to the presently crippled and defunct public health system.

ARTICLE: HOW DOES THE SCORECARD FOR OUR HARD-PRESSED COUNTRY’S TURNAROUND LOOK?

2019-07-23

It’s already old news that former President Zuma appeared before the Zondo Commission last week. He seemed to be suffering from severe amnesia, or have no opinion about most matters.

But in addition to this news, there is another question that most right-thinking and concerned South Africans are wrestling with, and which commentators reflect upon daily. Is President Ramaphosa winning the battle to turn the country around? Is he winning his battle to reform the country, and especially the State, to save it from the clutches of the Zuptas, to help the economy recover, and to set the country on a steady course?

ARTICLE: STUMBLING BLOCKS AND POWER BLOCS CALL FOR COOL HEADS

2019-06-11

One can almost feel the despair of the South African population. Among the reasons for this are an unprecedented increase in the spate of farm attacks and murders, Ace Magashule and Co. meddling with the Reserve Bank and trouble with infrastructure and dysfunctional municipalities in almost every town. And then having the Proteas messing about at the World Cup is no help either! Many South Africans are asking, “What is Cyril doing about this? He is the President now!”

And that’s partly true – our President is in a better place than a year ago as far as party politics are concerned. He followed up his victory at Nasrec (53%) with a 57.5% victory at the polls in May. He is no longer an “interim” President, but one that has led his party to a victory (and probably single-handedly rescued them from a defeat). He reduced the Cabinet and got all rid of all the biggest Zupta crooks. He promised (almost like Madiba of old) to be a President for all the people of South Africa and not just for the ANC. But, unfortunately, it doesn’t mean he is untouchable and can do what he wants. There are a few stumbling blocks on his path. And to understand what’s happening now, one needs to know what these stumbling blocks are.

ARTICLE: THE NEW CABINET: ABLE TO DELIVER OR THE SAME OLD SAME OLD?

2019-06-05

The excitement and disappointment (in some quarters) regarding the appointment of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Cabinet has settled. A number of articles have already been written about the Cabinet and its strong points, weak points, old members, and new recruits. The question remains: can the new Cabinet deliver on the President’s promises?

It is essential to remember that the most fundamental change to the new Cabinet is the chairman. How President Ramaphosa will lead- and what he prioritises- will distinguish his Cabinet from that of its predecessor. In addition, what is new is the support he will have. It is now generally understood that the choice of Ministers and deputies was a product of intense behind-the-scenes negotiations with various stakeholders. In the end, of the 28 Ministers, only five are known Zuma supporters (including Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who in the recent past has actually become supportive of the Ramaphosa cause). This implies that Ramaphosa has more than 80% of his Cabinet not in opposition to him or his plans. Even though the number of Deputy Ministers was inflated beyond initial plans, it is clear that at most, 12 of the 34 deputies were products of compromise with the Zuptoid faction. This gives Ramaphosa 75% support in the entire group and even more in the actual Cabinet of 28. That is a strong start, especially when one considers the potency of various factions and stakeholders in the ANC alliance. It is believed that the President (as many before him) will have a smaller, trusted circle, a kitchen Cabinet – and this is where he will start.

ARTICLE: THE SEMINAL CHALLENGES CONFRONTING PRESIDENT RAMAPHOSA

2019-05-24

Cyril Ramaphosa’s election as President of the ANC at NASREC in December 2017 was the second great turning point in the history of the new South Africa. The first had come at the ANC’s elective conference at Polokwane in 2007, when Jacob Zuma had defeated an astonished Thabo Mbeki in the election for the ANC’s presidency.

Zuma’s victory had its roots in a decision that was taken at COSATU’s 9th Congress in 2006 when the organisation decided to launch a battle for the ‘heart and soul’ of the ANC. It resolved, among other things, that “the working class must re-direct the NDR towards socialism and jealously guard it against opportunistic tendencies that are attempting to wrest it from achieving its logical conclusion, which is socialism”.

ARTICLE: IS CYRIL WINNING? FACTORS IN THE COMPOSITION OF THE NEW CABINET

2019-05-20

On 22 May, Cyril Ramaphosa will be elected by the National Assembly as President of democratic South Africa, with his inauguration on May 25. According to available information, the Cabinet will be announced on 27 May.

It is therefore too early to speculate on exactly who will be included in the Cabinet and who not. The lists currently doing the rounds have probably been released by various factions to determine which way the wind is blowing – and perhaps influence the wind’s direction.

ARTICLE: DID RACIAL IDENTITY HOLD SWAY IN THE 2019 ELECTIONS?

2019-05-16

The 8 May 2019 elections were held at a time and in a climate that saw most South Africans collectively concerned about the economy, corruption and State capture.

ARTICLE: ONLY JUST FREE AND FAIR, A MOVE TO THE CENTRE, BUT STILL IN THE MIDST OF EXTRA-PARLIAMENTARY POLITICS

2019-05-13

Democratic South Africa’s sixth general election has come and gone. Before reflecting on and interpreting the results, it is necessary to pause and consider the process that unfolded and brought us to this point. According to section 190 of the Constitution, the Electoral Commission must “manage elections… in accordance with national legislation; ensure that those elections are free and fair; and declare the results of those elections within a period that … is as short as reasonably possible”.

There was, therefore, a huge amount of preparation done for the 2019 National and Provincial Elections. During that time the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) was also mandated by the Constitutional Court to ensure that every eligible voter had a correct home address – a task that they had not yet completed by Election Day. Concerns were registered beforehand about the IEC’s capacity and its budget. Concerns had also been raised about the number of voters who had registered. Despite the IEC’s best efforts, only 27 million of the 36 million eligible voters registered. A further concern was the low rate of youth registration, especially in the category 18 to 36 years.

ARTICLE: MOVING THE NEEDLE – THE YOUTH VOTE IN SOUTH AFRICA

2019-04-18

As Election 2019 kicks into full swing, the numbers, names and details have become available, much of it online. A healthy 48 political parties will be contesting the national elections, with 26.74 million – or 74.4% – of the voting population having registered to vote. Of this number, 55% are women. A significant number of registered voters, almost 25%, are in the 30 to 39 years age group.

View Archived Content

ARTICLE: THE ANC’S DISASTROUS NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE PROPOSAL

ARTICLE: HOW DOES THE SCORECARD FOR OUR HARD-PRESSED COUNTRY’S TURNAROUND LOOK?

ARTICLE: STUMBLING BLOCKS AND POWER BLOCS CALL FOR COOL HEADS

ARTICLE: THE NEW CABINET: ABLE TO DELIVER OR THE SAME OLD SAME OLD?

ARTICLE: THE SEMINAL CHALLENGES CONFRONTING PRESIDENT RAMAPHOSA

ARTICLE: IS CYRIL WINNING? FACTORS IN THE COMPOSITION OF THE NEW CABINET

ARTICLE: DID RACIAL IDENTITY HOLD SWAY IN THE 2019 ELECTIONS?

ARTICLE: ONLY JUST FREE AND FAIR, A MOVE TO THE CENTRE, BUT STILL IN THE MIDST OF EXTRA-PARLIAMENTARY POLITICS

ARTICLE: MOVING THE NEEDLE – THE YOUTH VOTE IN SOUTH AFRICA

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