Compiled by Shaun Kinnes, Intern at the FW de Klerk Foundation, on 24/04/2024

Introduction:

This is the third and final article in the series on nuclear weapons and the increased threat these weapons once again pose to civilisation. In the previous two articles we looked at the geopolitics of nuclear weapons and the effect of AI on nuclear production programmes. This article examines military expenditure given the current geo-political atmosphere.

The Geo-political Atmosphere in Europe:

War has once again erupted in Europe, prompting the rise of heightened geo-political tensions and uncertainty within the global political arena. Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, recently uttered that, as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe is now in a pre-war era, highlighting that Europe has not had a situation like this since 1945.

With European member states to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (“NATO”) increasing production of weapons to war-time levels and NATO replanning war-time military strategy, it is safe to say that an era of “collective defence” has also ensued. (I.e. where an attack on one allied state is seen as an attack on all.) The United Kingdom’s Defence Secretary has said that it is now time that all allied and democratic nations across the globe increase defence spending, as in five years’ time they could face threats from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

Pre-War Era:

The United Kingdom will be sending more than 20 000 personnel to lead one of NATO’s largest deployments since the end of the Cold War, codenamed “Exercise Steadfast Defender”. Poland’s ruling Law and Justice Party (“PiS”) has put security at the core of its 2024 campaign. This comes amid fears of rising uncertainty on the country’s eastern border with Belarus due to alleged incursions by Belarusian military helicopters and mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group. (Military analysts view the alleged incursions as a way for Russia and Belarus to test NATO’s response, rather than an immediate prelude to attack.) The Polish government aims to spend 4% of its GDP on defence (almost double NATO’s guideline). NATO’s core objective has also shifted to re-stocking weapon arsenals, while simultaneously providing support to Ukraine.

Furthermore, German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, highlighted that, “Our peace order is in danger”. Hence, the German military has been beefed up to respond to the risks of the era that the world has entered into. This comes as the German Defence Ministry views one of its closest neighbours – Russia – as the greatest threat to peace and security, with China also becoming increasingly aggressive. Ultimately, the German defence force has released a 34-page document aimed at highlighting its military readiness away from a peace time force to one that is war ready, known as the Military and Strategic Doctrine.

The great Roman general, Renatus, once highlighted that, “if you want peace, prepare for war”. One must ask the question: Is the world facing a point in time now, where in order to ensure a peaceful future, we must prepare for war? War destroys societies, disregards human life and comes with vastly negative economic consequences. A third world war poses existential threats to all of humanity. Diplomacy must prevail, but with so-called “superpower states” (states with unmatched power and influence) on the rise, it may prove exceptionally difficult for governments to engage in active diplomacy where there is little to no alignment of common values and positions.

The risks of increased proxy battles between Eastern and Western blocs will eventually pose numerous risks to many states in the Global South, as was the case during the Cold War when Asia and Africa served as key battlegrounds between the Communist led Soviet Bloc and Capitalist led Western Bloc. Hence, a spill-over of instability will only threaten already fragile emerging markets and eventually fuel threats to food security, energy prices and institutionalism. Never again must the world experience an all-out “total war”, but with diplomacy failing – and states living in a constant state of belligerency – one must acknowledge the possibility that this might become an eventuality. 

In the aftermath of Israel’s bombing of the Iranian Embassy in Syria, which killed two top Iranian generals, Iran made good on vows to retaliate by launching a missile attack against Israel. Israel retaliated with a missile attack of its own. This risks the outbreak of a full-blown regional war in the Middle East. Israel has even gone as far as to threaten to attack Iranian nuclear sites if Iran launches any retaliatory attacks. This would ultimately heighten the risk of the deployment of nuclear weapons and expose millions of people in the region to nuclear and radiation fallout, should Israel launch an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The situation remains on a tipping point.