Issued by Shaun Kinnes on behalf of the FW de Klerk Foundation on 15/07/2024

Introduction:

On 29 May 2024, South Africans went to the polls for the National and Provincial elections. This resulted in the formation of the country’s second Government of National Unity (“GNU”). Despite concerns about potential violence, the elections proceeded without incident, thanks to heightened intelligence and security measures. The South African Police Service (“SAPS”) and other state security agencies, learning from past unrest, proactively contained any disruptions. Civil society also played a crucial role in monitoring the elections, ensuring they were free and fair. This coordinated effort helped maintain peace and stability, preventing the electoral violence that had marred previous political events.

The Looming Threat of Electoral Violence:

Electoral violence is a subcategory of political violence which deserves special recognition from the policy and security community. The notion of violence-free elections is encapsulated in the term “free and fair elections”. A non-contested constitutional framework, competitive multi-party system, agreed-upon electoral model and credible electoral management system are generally agreed-upon terms mitigating electoral violence.

South Africa’s electoral system promotes equal participation in the electoral process as guaranteed by the Electoral Act, 1998. The Independent Electoral Commission (“IEC”) finds its mandate in section 190 of the Constitution, including the obligation to ensure that elections are free and fair (section 190(1)(b)).

Furthermore, it has institutionalised risk management protocols within the mandate given to them under the constitutional framework which includes:

• Internal research and scenario planning mechanisms
• Coordination with the Justice Crime Prevention and Security (“JCPS”) cluster
• Project on coordinating conditions for free and fair elections
• Conflict mediation and prevention committees
• Legislative workshops with the IEC convenes
• The Electoral Court

Internal research and scenario planning mechanisms involve monthly meetings of senior officials in the run-up to the election month. The agenda focuses on discussing high-risk zones and identifying threats to the election. Coordination of the justice and security cluster, under a structure called NATJOINTS which is a coordination committee of the justice and security cluster, is essential. (In the lead-up to the elections, South Africa’s intelligence agencies had identified 500 high-risk voting stations that needed to be monitored. The majority of these were located in Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng.)

The Electoral Act further aims to mitigate and prevent electoral violence by constitutionally holding political parties accountable to an Electoral Code of Conduct.

In terms of this agreement, political parties agree to:

• Speak out against political violence and threats against other parties, the Electoral Commission, members of the public and the media.
• Let authorities know about planned marches or rallies.
• Communicate with other political parties about planned political events.
• Recognise the authority of the Electoral Commission
• Work with the police in the investigation of electoral crime and violence.
• Accept the results of the election or challenge the result in court.

Election Monitoring:

Election monitoring such as local and international observations is crucial in ensuring accountability, transparency and adherence to democratic laws. Several local democratic civil society groups and international observers (part of the Southern African Development Community and the African Union) were involved in observing the 2024 South African election. The latter deemed the elections were held under “peaceful” conditions.

The African Union Observer Mission arrived in South Africa on 23 May 2024 at the invitation of the South African government and IEC. To add to this a total of 160 organisations and 5000 observers, which include reputable democratic organisations such as the Carter Centre Democracy Program and the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, also assisted in ensuring that the 2024 elections were indeed free and fair.

Further mechanisms can be bolstered in South Africa and on the African continent as a means of mitigating violence and strengthening elections. These measures include: Incorporating conflict-mitigation measures into the electoral design process; Ensuring a security balance between deterrence and confidence building in electoral bodies; And improving peace building around election seasons.

Post-election Threats in KZN:

In the aftermath of the May 2024 elections, KwaZulu-Natal has once again become a focal point of concern regarding the threat of electoral violence, particularly by members of the uMkhonto weSizwe (“MK”) party. Despite the absence of outright election day violence, heightened tensions persist due to MK’s significant electoral success in the province, capturing 45% of the vote. This outcome has raised fears of post-election violence, exacerbated by Jacob Zuma’s inflammatory rhetoric and allegations of election rigging.

MK’s platform, rooted in a militaristic ethos and ethnic nationalism, underscores the volatile nature of its political strategy. The party’s rejection of the election results and calls for peaceful protests have not assuaged concerns, given historical precedents of political violence in KZN, including the July 2021 riots that claimed hundreds of lives.

To mitigate these risks, South African law enforcement, particularly in KZN, remains on high alert. The South African National Defence Force (“SANDF”) has deployed 2828 members to strategic locations to support police efforts in maintaining order and protecting critical infrastructure. Their presence aims to deter potential violence and swiftly respond to any disturbances that may arise.

Despite these efforts, the prospect of sustained peace has hinged on political negotiations and the inclusive governance approach advocated by President Cyril Ramaphosa’s GNU. This initiative seeks to bridge divides and address grievances through dialogue rather than confrontation, potentially marginalising extremist elements like MK from wielding undue influence.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, the successful conduct of South Africa’s 2024 elections underscored the nation’s commitment to upholding democratic principles enshrined in the Constitution and underpinned by the IEC.

Despite initial concerns, rigorous intelligence operations and the strategic deployment of SANDF, coordination through NATJOINTS and the involvement of international observers ensured that the elections proceeded peacefully. The IEC’s role in facilitating free and fair elections was pivotal, supported by robust monitoring mechanisms that upheld transparency and accountability throughout the electoral process.

Looking forward, sustaining these efforts is crucial to consolidating democratic gains and fostering national unity. By prioritising intelligence-led strategies and promoting inclusive governance, South Africa can mitigate post-election challenges effectively.

Upholding constitutional principles and electoral integrity remains paramount in navigating our contemporary political transition and advancing toward a cohesive and prosperous future for all citizens.