Shaun Kinnes, MA International Relations, Former FW de Klerk Foundation Intern and current Climate Fellow at Climate Peace & Security Organisation & Nakeeta Baijnath, MA candidate at the University of Witwatersrand

Tomorrow’s American elections, on 5 November 2024, has the world watching with great interest and concern as the political contest between current Vice President Harris and former President Trump intensifies. Depending on the outcome of the US election, this will have tremendous impact upon the United States’ and Africa’s relationship (“the US – Africa relationship”). The outcome will likely influence everything from trade agreements and foreign investments to strategic alliances and multilateral engagements.

This article explores the potential consequences of either candidate’s victory. It delves into the impact of a possible Trump return: how his past policies strained US – Africa relations and how a renewed US isolationism could further complicate trade and diplomatic efforts. Conversely, it analyses the prospects of a Harris presidency: whether her administration could deepen engagement on issues like human rights, economic development and multilateral cooperation. Additionally, the article will unpack key issues such as the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (“AGOA”), the geopolitical implications of ongoing conflicts and the critical minerals that position Africa as an indispensable partner to the US.

The Return of Donald Trump

The return of a Donald Trump presidency could see a largely uncordial relationship take shape between America and Africa. US – Africa diplomatic relations were tarnished during the 2016 Trump presidency, as President Trump viewed Africa as not part of his presidential objectives. Downturns in trade volumes and private investment into African industries were all outcomes of the Trump Presidency.

Since Trump left office, new developments include:

Developments in Sudan, the Congo and the Sahel (especially since the region has experience a resurgence in coups d’état), that have resulted in vast geopolitical consequences for both Africa and the US, such as Russia and China mobilising influence across the continent at the expense of U.S interests in the region. Africa is home to a vast array of critical minerals, which are vital in the production of several green technologies and military defence systems. A Trump administration will certainly recognise this and push for a deeper transactional approach when it comes to acquiring critical minerals in Africa.

The outbreak of various wars, such as the Russia – Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts. These have specifically strained US – SA relations in particular, because South Africa’s refusal to take a tougher stance against Russia in its war against Ukraine and South Africa’s case against Israel (that is one of America’s closest partners) in the International Court of Justice (on the grounds of Israel committing a genocide against the Palestinian people) have been major issues of contention between the two states.

In light of the above diplomatic rift, a Trump presidency could result in Trump labelling South Africa as simply not part of America’s interest. (More especially, given that the Trump constituency is largely composed of conservative voters who view Israel as vastly important for both religious and political reasons.) This will negatively impact South Africa, chiefly because of AGOA. (Senators from both the Democratic and Republican parties have calling for the review of South Africa’s position within this agreement.)

AGOA is a US trade policy that provides eligible African countries with duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products, aimed at promoting economic growth and development through increased trade and investment. While AGOA was voted for and legislated by American Congress, it is ultimately the American president that holds the key to approving continued beneficiary status. This status is uncertain in a Trump presidency. A loss of its AGOA status for South Africa will compromise both economic growth  and job creation, which could worsen the country’s economic outlook.

Additionally, American industrial trade policy and the emergence of economic nationalism could essentially translate to a Trump presidency not viewing AGOA as an objective, thus influencing the African continent overall. (Trump has promised to boost domestic production and secure supply lines.)

It is worth highlighting that despite a Trump presidency threat to US – SA relations, the United States would also be disproportionately affected should tensions in relations result in a negative outcome for South Africa: South Africa alone is the largest importer of American goods in Sub-Sharan Africa. South Africa supplies 12 of the 50 mineral products critical to American national interests. In 2021, the US imported almost 100% of chromium from South Africa, including 25% of manganese, titanium and platinum. All these minerals are critical in the manufacture of defence weapons and systems, meaning that the American military industrial complex would be directly affected should a decrease in availability of the mentioned minerals occur as a result of US – SA tensions. Africa is also a source of vastly important critical minerals that the US is crucially dependent on. According to the U.S Energy Act of 2020 the U.S has identified 50 critical minerals vital to its national and economic security. Other key African sources of critical minerals for the U.S are Mozambique, and the Congo. To court African critical minerals the U.S under the Biden administration has unveiled the “Build Back Better World” development programme aimed at countering the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.

Election of Kamala Harris

The African continent might be better placed to drive deeper US – Africa relations should Kamala Harris emerge victorious in the up-coming election. Similar to the Joe Biden presidency, the Harris administration will certainly continue pushing human rights, democracy and governance objectives as part of its Africa policy. Other avenues of increased cooperation will certainly include increased climate finance  action, sustainable development and multilateral governance reforms. Harris could also drive the objective of strengthening African economies through trade as key to long-term global stability. This could see an expanded or modified AGOA, ensuring it plays a role in countering violent extremism, instability and economic fragility in regions of strategic importance to the US.

Moving African issues out of the periphery of strategic thinking and waking up to the reality that great powers, such as China and Russia, including middle powers such as India and Turkey, are entrenching influence on the African continent, much to the detriment of the US, is a key factor that a Harris administration should aim to recognise and respond to. The global political arena has entered into what could be known as a multipolar order, whereby the US is no longer at the pinnacle of global affairs. Hence, Africa is slowly emerging as a battleground in which these tensions playout between super-powers and middle power states. In her 2023 visit to the continent, Harris made the remarks that she was received like a “daughter” and that her visit was like “a homecoming”. She visited Ghana, Zambia and Tanzania. During this trip, Harris committed to addressing issues such as an increasing debt burden and increased climate action.

Conclusion

The 2024 American election is a pivotal moment for both the United States and the world. As the US is a key development partner to the African continent as a whole and to SA in particular, with Pretoria seeing it as one of SA’s major partners. As pointed out above, South Africa is also a key partner to the US as a major source of critical minerals. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel region are two imperative regions of the continent that either Trump or Harris will have to pay vast attention to as well, as these regions are vital to US national interest and areas where China, Russia and a range of middle powers are actively bargaining for influence.