Issued by Ezra Mendel on behalf of the FW de Klerk Foundation on 17/10/2024

South Africa has once again found itself at the centre of geopolitical tensions following the docking of the Russian frigate Neustrashimy at Simon’s Town Naval Base, stirring a sense of déjà vu in international relations. The frigate’s participation in the SA Naval Festival has reignited debate over South Africa’s claimed position of non-alignment in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. This article aims to explore the broader implications of these engagements, particularly in the context of South Africa’s foreign policy, international alliances and its evolving political landscape.

A Familiar Scene

This is not the first time South Africa has faced international scrutiny over its naval engagements with Russia. In late 2022, the docking of the Russian vessel Lady R at Simon’s Town Naval Base sparked allegations that South Africa was supplying arms to Russia for its war in Ukraine. This accusation threw South Africa into a diplomatic crisis, exposing the complexities of its relationship with the US. With the recent docking of Neutrashimy, the situation feels eerily familiar, reviving unresolved questions about South Africa’s foreign policy direction. Whilst South Africa has not been accused of providing arms this time, new concerns have surfaced. Reports suggest that the frigate’s Automatic Identification System (“AIS”) transponder — which allows the vessel to be tracked to avoid collisions — was switched off, raising suspicions that the South African government may have tried to conceal the ship’s presence. Although the government maintains its neutral stance, critics both locally and internationally argue that these actions are sending mixed signals. South Africa’s close ties with Moscow persist even after the African National Congress (“ANC”) lost the majority and the newly formed Government of National Unity (“GNU”) took power, prompting further questions about the new administration’s allegiances.

A Clear Diplomatic Message

Naval exercises hold immense significance in international relations, often serving as clear indicators of diplomatic ties between states. In a world where China is asserting its dominance in the South China Sea, Russia is involved in the conflict in Ukraine and the US maintains a global military presence, South Africa’s naval engagements with these powers have naturally raised concerns.

Africa has also become a battleground for competing military interests. Countries like Kenya and Botswana have leaned toward alliances with the US, while Sahel and South Africa have increasingly gravitated towards military cooperation with Russia. Although South Africa does not host foreign military bases, its military partnerships — particularly through naval exercises — demonstrate a clear alignment with certain global powers.

One notable example of this is Exercise IBSAMAR, a trilateral naval drill involving South Africa, Brazil and India, which underscores South-South cooperation. This reflects South Africa’s commitment to building ties beyond traditional Western alliances. Naval exercises like IBSAMAR are a priority for the country, as they enhance military readiness, promote maritime security and strengthen its strategic partnerships with emerging global powers. In addition to the recent docking of the Russian frigate Neustrashimy, the Chinese warship CNS Xuchang also arrived in South Africa ahead of the SA Naval Festival, although the circumstances surrounding its visit remain somewhat unclear. These collaborations highlight South Africa’s positioning as a key player in multilateral defence initiatives. However, its engagement with non-Western powers like Russia and China raise questions about the country’s claimed non-aligned stance, particularly when its naval alliances seem to show a preference for distancing itself from Western powers like the US.

Domestic Reactions

Locally, the situation has sparked significant debate. South Africa’s ties with both Russia and Western countries are substantial, making the country’s balancing act increasingly precarious. While parties like the ANC are known for their historic interest in Russian and Chinese alliances, opposition parties like the Democratic Alliance (“DA”) and civil society groups are raising concerns. They question whether continued military engagement with Russia is truly in the best interest of South Africa’s international standing.

As the country faces major economic challenges, with unemployment, power shortages and inflation on the rise, the question remains whether South Africa can afford to alienate key Western allies by engaging with Russia so openly. Adding a new dimension to these concerns is the recent political shift with the formation of the GNU, following the ANC’s loss of its majority. As the GNU begins to shape its foreign policy, questions arise about its approach to these international alliances. Will the new government follow in the ANC’s footsteps, maintaining close military ties with Russia, or will it pivot towards stronger relations with the West? This transition period brings uncertainty as South Africa’s foreign policy direction may now reflect the influence of multiple political stakeholders within the GNU, further complicating its position on the global stage.

Déjà vu or a turning point?

As South Africa continues to deepen its naval cooperation with Russia and China, the sense of déjà vu is palpable. This situation underscores the delicate balancing act South Africa must perform for both Eastern and Western powers. Although this incident alone is unlikely to be impactful enough to act as a pivotal turning point in South Africa’s diplomatic relations, it is clear that South Africa’s diplomatic manoeuvres will be closely scrutinised on the global stage, as the nation finds itself at the crossroads of great power politics.

In this context, South Africa’s adherence to its traditional values in its foreign policy, such as non-alignment and peaceful conflict resolution, will be key in shaping its future direction. The docking of the Russian frigate may feel like history repeating itself, but how South Africa reconciles these engagements with its constitutional commitments will determine whether this is merely a familiar event or the beginning of a significant shift in its international relations.